Southeast Asia Tilts Toward China

By Mata Press Service

Southeast Asian opinion leaders are increasingly leaning toward China over the United States as Beijing strengthens its economic and strategic influence across the region and anxiety grows over President Donald Trump’s leadership, a major regional survey has found.

The 2026 State of Southeast Asia survey found that 52 per cent of respondents would choose China if the Association of Southeast Asian Nations were forced to align with one of the two powers. Forty-eight per cent chose the United States.

That result reverses the narrow American lead recorded last year, when 52.3 per cent favoured Washington and 47.7 per cent selected Beijing. The movement toward China remains modest, but the survey’s authors said it reflects a region divided between its economic dependence on Beijing and longstanding security ties with Washington.

The swing was especially pronounced in Singapore, where support for China rose to 66.3 per cent from 47.1 per cent last year. China was also strongly favoured in Indonesia, at 80.1 per cent, Malaysia at 68 per cent, Timor-Leste at 58.2 per cent and Thailand at 55 per cent.

The United States remained the clear choice in the Philippines, where 76.8 per cent favoured Washington, as well as Myanmar at 61.4 per cent, Cambodia at 61 per cent and Vietnam at 59.2 per cent.

The survey said countries with deep economic links to China appear more inclined toward Beijing, while traditional American security partners, led by the Philippines, remain closer to Washington.

China was also ranked the region’s most influential economic and political-strategic power. Some 55.9 per cent of respondents identified it as the dominant economic force, while 40 per cent regarded it as the most influential strategic power.

Among ASEAN’s formal dialogue partners, China received the highest score for strategic relevance, at 9.1 out of 11, ahead of the United States at 8.6 and Japan at 7.7. The report said the widening gap between China and the US suggests Beijing’s importance to the region has grown during the past year.

Yet China’s growing reach continues to generate unease. Concern about its expanding economic and political influence remained stronger than acceptance, while its conduct in the South China Sea ranked among the region’s most serious geopolitical worries.

More than half of respondents, 51.7 per cent, cited Chinese encroachments into the exclusive economic zones and continental shelves of Southeast Asian coastal states as a key concern. Another 45.2 per cent feared an accidental conflict between China and an ASEAN member state.

Aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea was the third-largest geopolitical concern across the region, cited by 48.2 per cent of respondents. It ranked highest in the Philippines, at 87.7 per cent, Vietnam at 66.8 per cent and Brunei at 63.2 per cent, all of which have competing maritime claims with China.

Despite those fears, the United States produced the greatest overall geopolitical anxiety.

Some 51.9 per cent of respondents identified US leadership under Trump as a top concern, placing it narrowly ahead of global scam operations at 51.4 per cent and China’s South China Sea conduct.

Concern about Trump was highest in Singapore, where 76.8 per cent selected his leadership as a major issue, followed by Indonesia at 67.8 per cent and Laos at 52.9 per cent.

The report said the response reflected doubts about the consistency of US policy and Washington’s long-term reliability under Trump. Those expecting relations with the United States to worsen said Washington should respect international law and international institutions and avoid undermining the global system.

Across ASEAN, 29.5 per cent expected their country’s relationship with the United States to deteriorate during Trump’s second administration, more than double the 14.2 per cent recorded last year.

Another 37.7 per cent expected relations to remain unchanged, while 32.8 per cent believed they would improve. That was down sharply from the 46 per cent who expected improvement in 2025.

Pessimism was strongest in Thailand, where 47.4 per cent expected relations to worsen, and Singapore at 43.5 per cent. Respondents in Cambodia and Vietnam were more optimistic, with 55.5 per cent and 53.8 per cent respectively expecting improved ties with Washington.

The survey also points to growing concern about the pressures created by rivalry between the world’s two largest powers. More than half of respondents, 55.2 per cent, said ASEAN should respond by strengthening its own resilience and unity rather than moving closer to either side.

That desire for greater regional independence comes as ASEAN faces doubts about its ability to act collectively.

When asked about the bloc’s response to the Cambodia-Thailand border crisis, 38.9 per cent said ASEAN had taken active steps through diplomatic engagement and ministerial statements. But 13.5 per cent said it had failed to use all the tools available to it, while 8.4 per cent said its response depended too heavily on the country holding the rotating ASEAN chair.

Domestic limitations were also seen as barriers to deeper regional integration. About 30.2 per cent blamed weak administrative and technical capacity within member states, while 30.1 per cent cited wide gaps in economic development. A further 27.5 per cent pointed to geopolitical pressures affecting regional interests.

Only 12.1 per cent regarded a lack of political will as the main obstacle.

Beyond the competition between China and the United States, climate change remains Southeast Asia’s most pressing challenge.

Sixty per cent of respondents identified climate change and more frequent extreme weather as a top concern, up from 55.3 per cent last year. It ranked first in the Philippines, Indonesia, Laos, Brunei, Timor-Leste and Vietnam.

Economic tensions between major powers were second at 51.7 per cent, followed by domestic political instability at 46.1 per cent. Human rights conditions ranked last among the listed regional challenges, selected by 7.4 per cent.

Japan remained the region’s most trusted major power, with 65.6 per cent expressing confidence in it. The European Union followed at 55.9 per cent, ahead of the United States at 44 per cent, China at 39.8 per cent and India at 38.5 per cent.

The survey said Japan’s position was driven partly by its reputation as a responsible power that respects international law. China and India remained near the bottom of the trust rankings, although both recorded trust levels above distrust for the first time since the annual survey began in 2019.

The survey was conducted online between Jan. 5 and Feb. 20 by the ASEAN Studies Centre at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

It drew responses from 2,008 people across all 11 ASEAN member states, including government officials, academics, business representatives, journalists, civil society groups and personnel from regional and international organizations.